ADSK — Autodesk, Inc.

As of 2026-09-23 the tape is unambiguously negative: ADSK was down 14.65% over the prior month and 1.43% over the prior week, sitting 5.57% below its 20-day SMA, 7.12% below its 50-day SMA and 10.33% below its 200-day SMA, with RSI(14) at 41.29. Critically, this looks like a valuation de-rating rather than an earnings disappointment — the quarter ending 2026-07-31 (filed 2026-08-28) delivered $2.046B revenue (+16.1% YoY), $599M operating income (29.3% margin vs. 25.5% a year earlier) and $561M of free cash flow, the strongest seasonally-weak July quarter in the dataset. Sell-side has not capitulated (39 Buy / 9 Hold / 4 Sell, consensus target $303.44), so the ~$86 gap between price and consensus target is a pure sentiment-versus-fundamentals standoff. The live news brief was unavailable for this run, so I cannot attribute the drawdown to a specific dated catalyst — that is a real information gap, not a neutral fact.

Revenue has compounded for three straight years with no down quarter: $1.414B (Oct-2023) → $1.505B (Jul-2024) → $1.763B (Jul-2025) → $2.046B (Jul-2026). YoY growth accelerated from ~11% in the Oct-2024/Jan-2025 quarters to a peak of 19.4% (Jan-2026), then eased to 18.4% (Apr-2026) and 16.1% (Jul-2026) — a mild deceleration from a high base, not a break, and the sequential step was a healthy +5.8%. Margins are the stronger story: quarterly operating margin has gone 23.6% → 21.4% → 21.1% → 22.8% → 22.0% → 23.2% → 20.7% → 25.5% → 25.6% → 27.1% → 28.0% → 29.3% from Oct-2023 through Jul-2026, roughly 600bps of expansion over two years, with the last four quarters a monotonic step-up. GAAP diluted EPS went $1.46 (Jul-2025) → $2.32 (Jul-2026). The one outlier is the Apr-2025 quarter (net income $152M, EPS $0.70, 9.3% net margin vs. 20-24% in adjacent quarters) — that reads as a one-off charge, since gross margin only dipped to 90.2% and revenue still grew 15.2%, and earnings recovered fully the next quarter. Free cash flow is inflecting hard: trailing four-quarter FCF (Aug-2025 through Jul-2026) is $2.832B versus $1.884B in the prior four quarters, +50% YoY, and H1 FY2027 FCF of $1.437B is up 43% versus H1 FY2026. Verdict: stable-to-slightly-decelerating top line (still mid-to-high teens), decisively expanding margins, accelerating cash conversion. This is a quality compounder executing well — the only thing to monitor is the three-quarter drift in growth from 19.4% to 16.1%.

Cheap on forward numbers, mid-range on trailing. As of 2026-09-23, ADSK's $217.15 price equals 27.98x trailing GAAP EPS of $7.782 and just 17.2x the next-FY consensus EPS of $12.593 — a steep discount to its 5-year average P/E of 67.14 (that average is inflated by earlier low-GAAP-earnings years, so treat the comparison loosely) and clearer on sales: 5.89x TTM P/S versus a 5-year average of 10.03x. PEG of 0.472 and a TTM price-to-FCF of roughly 16.2x ($2.832B FCF / ~211M shares = $13.42/share) both screen cheap for a 91% gross-margin, mid-teens-growth software franchise. EV/EBITDA of 19.8x is the least cheap metric but unremarkable for the quality. The balance-sheet optics are worse than the reality: a current ratio of 0.855 and D/E of 1.095 (total debt ~$3.7B vs. $3.38B equity) look stretched until you note $4.098B of cash against $1.985B of long-term debt — a net cash position — with the sub-1.0 current ratio driven by deferred revenue, not distress. Net: modestly cheap relative to both its own history and its growth rate, entirely contingent on mid-teens revenue growth continuing.

The market is paying ~17x forward EPS for a company consensus models at ~15.5% revenue growth ($8.32B next FY) and $12.59 EPS — so the multiple embeds either a growth slowdown that has not shown up in reported results, or a structural AI-disruption discount on seat-based software. The most recent print supported the bulls: +16.1% revenue and 29.3% operating margin. If billings/RPO and net revenue retention hold, the gap between a 17x multiple and a mid-teens grower with expanding margins is the entire trade — a re-rating to 22-24x forward gets you to roughly $277-$302. Conversely, if growth slides toward high single digits (the drift from 19.4% to 16.1% over three quarters is the earliest hint), 17x is close to fair and the stock simply stays cheap. You are not paying much for the growth, but you are being asked to underwrite that the de-rating is sentiment rather than a leading indicator.

As of 2026-09-23, ADSK is in a clean downtrend: the $217.15 price sits 5.57% below the 20-day SMA, 7.12% below the 50-day SMA and 10.33% below the 200-day SMA, with RSI(14) at 41.29 — weak momentum, but not yet oversold (no sub-30 reading). The stock is up 12.74% over three months yet down 14.65% over one month and 7.76% over six months, i.e. a three-month rally has been fully unwound. Below all three moving averages there is no technical support signal in play; the 52-week low of $185.50 is the next reference level, roughly 15% below the current price. Entry-timing implication: there is no reason to chase. A constructive setup would require RSI turning up from the mid-30s and price reclaiming the 20-day SMA; until that happens the path of least resistance is lower, and position sizing should assume the drawdown may extend.

• Software multiple compression and the 'AI eats SaaS' narrative: seat-based application software is being de-rated on fears generative AI compresses seat counts and pricing power — this, more than ADSK's reported numbers, is what a 17x forward P/E reflects.
• Rate and discount-rate sensitivity: with a beta of 1.309 and long-duration subscription cash flows, ADSK's multiple is leveraged to the 10-year yield; an easing cycle is a tailwind, a back-up in yields is a headwind.
• AEC and manufacturing end-market cyclicality: AutoCAD, Revit and Fusion demand tracks construction, infrastructure and industrial capex, which are themselves rate- and PMI-sensitive — a genuine macro soft patch would hit seat growth and billings.
• Currency: a large share of Autodesk billings is international, so a persistently strong dollar is both a revenue and an ARR headwind that can mask underlying constant-currency growth.
• Enterprise IT budget scrutiny and procurement pressure on per-seat pricing, alongside the completed subscription transition that has moved a large share of the economics onto the balance sheet as deferred revenue.

• Q3 FY2027 results (quarter ending 2026-10-31, expected late November 2026): the key reads are billings, remaining performance obligation/ARR, and whether revenue growth stabilizes near 16% or keeps drifting toward low double digits.
• Any AI product or monetization disclosure across AutoCAD/Revit/Fusion/Forma — concrete evidence that AI is an upsell and a retention tool rather than a seat-compression threat would directly attack the bear case behind the current multiple.
• Continued margin and cash-flow progression: TTM FCF already $2.832B (+50% YoY) with the Apr-2026 quarter at $965M and H1 FY2027 up 43% — another leg up supports a re-rating from 17x forward earnings.
• Capital return capacity: $4.098B of cash against $1.985B of long-term debt plus ongoing buybacks that have already grown book equity from $1.482B (Oct-2023) to $3.383B (Jul-2026) while retiring shares.
• Sell-side recalibration after the drawdown: 13 analysts average a $303.44 target (range $215-$341) versus a $217.15 price — either targets get cut or the price closes the gap.

• AI-driven disruption of per-seat pricing is the single largest risk: a 91.2% gross-margin, high-ARPU, seat-based franchise is exactly the profile generative AI threatens, and no reported metric yet proves otherwise.
• Growth deceleration is already visible: YoY revenue growth has eased from 19.4% (Jan-2026 quarter) to 18.4% to 16.1%; two more steps down and 17x forward earnings is no longer cheap.
• Balance-sheet optics cut both ways: a current ratio of 0.855 and debt-to-equity of 1.095 leave less stated cushion than most large-cap software peers — a fair point even though $4.098B of cash makes the company net-cash positive.
• Pure multiple risk: continued software-sector de-rating compresses ADSK even if the business executes on plan, and the stock below all three major moving averages shows momentum currently working against holders.
• Earnings-quality gap: TTM GAAP EPS of $7.78 versus a $12.59 forward (non-GAAP) estimate is a wide spread driven largely by stock-based compensation — if the market shifts toward GAAP-based valuation, the multiple looks materially less cheap.
• Information gap around the recent decline: with no live news context available, I cannot rule out a company-specific driver behind the 14.65% one-month drop that a fundamentals-only model would not see.

ADSK is a higher-quality business than its deterministic 58.4 'Fair Fundamentals' score implies, and cheaper than its own history — but the tape disagrees and there is currently no news context to explain why. As of 2026-09-23 the stock is 33% below its 52-week high, below all three major moving averages, and down 14.65% in a month against a backdrop of +16.1% revenue growth, 29.3% operating margins, +50% YoY free cash flow, net cash and 18.7% ROIC. That makes it a reasonable accumulation candidate for a patient investor at 17x forward earnings, but not a momentum trade — I would want to see price reclaim the 20-day SMA and RSI lift out of the low 40s before treating the drawdown as finished. This is analysis, not personalized financial advice.

Blended three approaches as of 2026-09-23: (1) 24x forward FY2027 EPS of $12.593 = $302 (45% weight — a mid-20s multiple is justified for a 16% grower with 91% gross margins, expanding operating margins and net cash, and sits below both the 5-year average P/S of 10.03x versus 5.89x today and the stock's historical forward multiple); (2) 22x TTM free cash flow of $2,832M plus ~$2,113M net cash = ~$305/share (30% weight); (3) a 10%-WACC DCF on $2,832M TTM FCF with growth fading from 14% to 8% and a 3% terminal rate = ~$283 (25% weight). The weighted result is approximately $298, roughly 37% above the $217.15 price and modestly below the $303.44 sell-side consensus.