BX — Blackstone Inc.

Sentiment turned positive after Q2 2026 distributable earnings of $2.0B / $1.52 per share beat consensus by a wide margin and rose 26% YoY. Record AUM of $1.35T, roughly $70B of quarterly inflows, and a 19 Buy / 10 Hold / 1 Sell analyst breakdown support the constructive mood, while the stock trading above its 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages confirms the near-term bid.

The trend has clearly inflected upward. Q2 2026 revenue was $4.77B, up 28.5% YoY, following Q1 2026's $4.10B, up 39.3% YoY; that came after a weak Q3 2025 where revenue was down 6.2% YoY. GAAP diluted EPS jumped from $0.98 in Q2 2025 to $1.57 in Q2 2026, operating margin expanded from 51.6% to 61.9%, and free cash flow surged to $1.91B from $0.85B. The quarter-to-quarter path is still lumpy—Q4 2025 FCF was negative and Q4 2023 was a low-margin quarter—but the direction is a realization/performance-fee upswing, not a structural decline.

As of 2026-08-27, BX is fairly valued rather than cheap. TTM P/E is 31.9x versus a 5-year average of 40.9x, and forward P/E on next-FY EPS of $5.965 is about 24x. P/S of 10.8x is above the 5-year average of 9.25x, and PEG is 1.52. The stock is not priced for perfection, but it also has no large valuation cushion if earnings momentum stalls.

At $143.59 on 2026-08-27, the market is paying roughly 24x next-year EPS estimates. The high target of $184 implies about 31x forward earnings; the low target of $127 implies about 21x. In other words, the current price is already embedding a successful Q4 2026 realization rebound and strong 2027 fee growth. The next leg higher likely needs actual delivered outperformance rather than multiple expansion.

As of 2026-08-27, RSI was 59.4, not overbought, and price was 1.89% above its 20-day SMA, 10.22% above its 50-day SMA, and 9.71% above its 200-day SMA. That is a healthy intermediate uptrend. The main caution is entry timing: after a 10% run above the 50-day, buying at market is less compelling than waiting for a pullback toward roughly $141 or $130 support.

• Interest rates: cooling inflation and expected Fed rate cuts are reducing friction for dealmaking; a re-acceleration in rates would pressure transaction volumes and fund marks.
• AI infrastructure buildout: Blackstone is a primary financier/owner of data centers, with its data center platform reportedly re-rated from $130B to $185B.
• Private credit expansion: large platforms like the $35B Broadcom financing are structural tailwinds, but also draw regulatory and credit-cycle scrutiny.
• Real estate stabilization: traditional CRE remains mixed, but Blackstone's tilt toward data centers, logistics, and energy transition offsets much of the drag.
• IPO/realization cycle: an improving listing pipeline, with 8 global listings on file, should support performance fees and distributions in Q4 2026 and 2027.

• Q3 2026 earnings on October 22, 2026, with management guiding mid-single-digit base fee growth in Q3 and a strong realization rebound in Q4.
• Barclays Global Financial Services Conference on September 15, 2026, where CFO Michael Chae may give mid-quarter color.
• Continued AI mega-deals, including the Google cloud partnership, Broadcom private-credit platform, and NVIDIA-led consortium targeting $500B+ of AI compute financing.
• AUM growth beyond $1.35T as institutional inflows remain strong.

• Performance-fee and realization volatility: Q3 2026 net realizations are guided lower; a weak Q4 would undermine the bull thesis.
• Credit stress or higher-for-longer rates could hurt private-credit portfolios and fund marks.
• Valuation cushion is thin: price is only slightly below the consensus target, so a negative earnings surprise could trigger a sharp de-rating.
• Balance-sheet leverage: debt/equity is 1.56 and current ratio is 0.92, leaving the holdco sensitive to credit-market disruptions.
• Regulatory/tax risk on carried interest and private-markets oversight is a recurring overhang.

Blackstone is a best-in-class private-markets compounder with record AUM, durable fee-related earnings, and the strongest exposure among listed asset managers to AI infrastructure and private credit. At roughly 24x forward earnings, it is a reasonable long-term investment but not a deep-value entry; the near-term outcome depends on the realization cycle and AI/private-credit deal flow delivering as guided.

Fair value is 27.0x estimated next-fiscal-year EPS of $5.965, which yields $161.06. I used 27x as a premium to the current ~24x forward multiple, reflecting Blackstone's record AUM, AI/private-credit growth, and margin quality, but a meaningful discount to the 5-year average P/E of 40.9x due to the cyclicality of realized performance fees.