ED — Consolidated Edison, Inc.

Market sentiment is cautious rather than outright negative: ED beat Q2 2026 consensus ($0.83 EPS vs. ~$0.77) and reaffirmed full-year 2026 EPS guidance of $6.00-$6.20, but the stock has still lost 7.33% over six months as elevated 10-year Treasury yields around 4.65%-4.70% reduce the appeal of a 3.25%-yielding utility bond proxy. Analyst positioning reflects that tension, with a Hold consensus, 3 buys, 17 holds, and 7 sells, and a consensus target of $105.25 that is slightly below the 2026-09-13 price.

The three-year trend is stable-to-modestly-growing, with strong quarterly seasonality and weather/rate effects. Revenue has generally grown year over year: Q2 2026 revenue was $4.069B, up 13.2% from $3.595B in Q2 2025; Q1 2026 was $5.095B, up 6.2%; Q4 2025 was $3.995B, up 8.9%; and Q3 2025 was $4.530B, up 10.7%. Earnings are also up over time but noisier: Q2 2026 EPS of $0.83 rose from $0.68, and Q1 2026 EPS of $2.54 rose from $2.25, while Q4 2025 EPS of $0.82 fell from $0.89 despite higher revenue. Margins are seasonal and mixed rather than structurally expanding: Q2 2026 operating margin was 13.6% vs. 9.9% a year earlier, but Q4 2025 operating margin was 12.1% vs. 13.9%. Free cash flow remains volatile and often negative because of heavy capex, but Q2 2026 FCF was positive at $624M after $1.797B of operating cash flow and $1.173B of capex. Overall, this looks like a regulated utility growing EPS in the mid-single digits, not a deteriorating business, but also not an accelerating growth story.

As of 2026-09-13, ED trades at a TTM P/E of 17.42x versus its 5-year average P/E of 17.91x, and at roughly 17.4x next-FY estimated EPS of $6.104. The PEG ratio of 1.66 and 3.25% dividend yield frame it as fairly valued, not cheap. P/B of 1.53x and P/S of 2.22x are also close to historical norms, with the 5-year average P/S at 2.12x. Given projected EPS growth of only about 5%-6% annually, lagging the broader regulated electric peer average of roughly 8%, the stock offers limited valuation upside without either lower interest rates or faster rate-base growth.

At $106.46 on 2026-09-13, the market is paying about 17.4x forward EPS of roughly $6.10, which is squarely in line with ED's recent valuation range and close to the consensus target of $105.25. The Q2 2026 beat and reaffirmed $6.00-$6.20 guidance are already reflected in the price; the stock did not break out on the beat. For upside, investors likely need either a meaningful drop in Treasury yields, a favorable NYSPSC rate outcome, or evidence that capital investment is driving faster EPS growth. Without that, the stock is more likely to track its dividend and modest earnings growth than to re-rate higher.

As of 2026-09-13, RSI was 42.99, which is neutral and not oversold. The price was 1.15% below its 20-day SMA, 2.68% below its 50-day SMA, and 0.88% below its 200-day SMA, with a 6-month return of -7.33%. That is a mildly bearish, range-bound technical setup rather than a capitulation low. Entry-timing wise, there is no clear oversold bounce signal; a reclaim of the 50-day SMA or an RSI push below 30 would offer a better risk/reward setup than buying in the middle of the range.

• Elevated 10-year Treasury yields around 4.65%-4.70% compress the relative attractiveness of ED's 3.25% dividend yield and raise utility financing costs.
• NYSPSC regulation and political scrutiny over consumer energy costs constrain allowed returns and rate increases.
• Heavy capital investment, including the record $3.9B summer infrastructure plan, keeps free cash flow volatile and often negative, requiring debt or equity funding.
• Utility sector rotation remains sensitive to interest-rate expectations, and ED's low beta (0.259) makes it a bond proxy when yields move.
• Inflation and operating-cost recovery timing can pressure margins if rate relief lags actual cost increases.

• Q3 2026 earnings in late October/early November 2026, including updated tracking against full-year EPS guidance of $6.00-$6.20.
• NYSPSC regulatory milestones and any new rate decisions affecting allowed ROE and capital recovery.
• Strategic alternatives for non-core pipeline/storage equity investments, including Mountain Valley Pipeline monetization steps.
• Moves in the 10-year Treasury yield, which could either relieve or intensify pressure on utility valuations.
• The next quarterly dividend declaration and any increase, reinforcing the Dividend Aristocrat profile.

• Higher-for-longer interest rates could keep ED's yield relatively unattractive and compress its P/E multiple.
• Adverse NYSPSC rate decisions or political intervention could limit allowed returns and capital recovery.
• Execution risk and cost overruns on the large infrastructure program could pressure cash flow and credit metrics.
• Negative free cash flow and rising long-term debt ($26.843B at Q2 2026 vs. $24.657B a year earlier) increase financing risk if rates stay high.
• Weather variability and commodity-cost timing can create quarterly earnings volatility, as seen in the Q4 2025 EPS decline despite revenue growth.

ED is a high-quality regulated utility and Dividend Aristocrat, but as of 2026-09-13 it is not an attractive total-return investment. The shares are fairly valued at roughly 17.4x forward EPS, growth is only mid-single-digit, the dividend yield is decent but not compelling versus risk-free yields, and the technical picture is weak. Income-focused investors may hold for the 3.25% yield, but the risk/reward is uninspiring with limited upside to my fair value estimate and real sensitivity to rates and regulation.

I applied a 17.3x forward P/E, a modest discount to ED's 5-year average of 17.91x, to the 2026/next-FY EPS midpoint of roughly $6.10. That multiple reflects mid-single-digit EPS growth, a 3.25% dividend yield, and elevated 10-year Treasury yields. The result is about $105.50, cross-checked by a dividend-discount approach using the $3.55 annualized dividend, roughly 3.5% dividend growth, and a ~7% cost of equity.