EXPE — Expedia Group, Inc.

Market sentiment is mixed: the August 5, 2026 Q2 beat and raised guidance initially drove EXPE to a 52-week high near $340, but a subsequent sector-wide travel/tech selloff pushed the stock down to the $275–$298 range by mid-September. As of 2026-09-13, RSI was 39.18, the stock was 9.98% below its 20-day SMA and 13.74% lower over the past month, yet still 24.87% higher over three months. Analyst views are split—FMP shows a Hold consensus, while the live brief notes a Buy tilt with a ~$339–$344 mean target—so investors appear to be taking profits and awaiting Q3 confirmation rather than abandoning the story.

The three-year quarterly trend shows a clear inflection upward. Revenue growth went from +3.3% YoY in Q3 2024 to +8.7% in Q3 2025, then accelerated to +14.7% in Q1 2026 and +14.0% in Q2 2026. Operating margin expanded sharply: Q2 2026 operating income was $1.031B (23.9% margin) vs. $531M (14.0%) in Q2 2025 and $451M (12.7%) in Q2 2024. Q1 2026 net loss narrowed to -$6M from -$200M in Q1 2025. Q2 2026 diluted EPS was $7.16 vs. $2.48 a year ago, though the brief notes adjusted EPS of $5.76 (+36% YoY), indicating some GAAP uplift from one-time items. The B2B segment’s 20th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth (+23% in Q2 2026) and resilient U.S. consumer travel are structural drivers, not just a seasonal blip. Seasonality remains pronounced—Q1 is typically loss-making—but the trend is accelerating, not decelerating.

As of 2026-09-13, EXPE trades at a TTM P/E of 16.84 and a forward P/E of 13.45 (using next-FY EPS of $20.87), versus a 5-year average P/E of 28.46. The PEG ratio of 0.181 is extremely low, though it may be distorted by trailing growth. P/S is 2.05, exactly in line with the 5-year average of 2.05. EV/EBITDA is 8.6x, and TTM free cash flow is roughly $4.25B, a ~13.2% FCF yield. On cash flow and forward earnings, the stock looks cheap; on book value (P/B 28.1x) and balance sheet (D/E 4.7x, current ratio 0.80), it looks stretched, but those metrics are skewed by heavy buybacks and low equity. Net-net, valuation is attractive relative to the company’s own history and growth rate.

The stock is pricing in a meaningful slowdown despite accelerating fundamentals. At $280.83, the market is applying only ~13.5x forward EPS, while analysts expect next-FY EPS of $20.87 and the company just raised full-year revenue guidance to $16.05–$16.22B. If Q3 2026 (late October) confirms that momentum, estimates could be revised higher and the multiple could re-rate toward the mid-to-high teens or the historical average, creating upside. Conversely, if macro anxiety causes travel demand to weaken, the low multiple may prove justified. The setup favors investors who believe the B2B secular growth and margin expansion are durable.

As of 2026-09-13, RSI was 39.18—weak but not yet oversold. The stock is 9.98% below its 20-day SMA and 5.08% below its 50-day SMA, but still 8.26% above its 200-day SMA. The short-term trend is down after the pullback from $342, while the longer-term trend remains positive. The 200-day SMA sits near $259 (implied), making that a key support level. For entry timing, the stock is in a corrective phase; a stabilization above the 20-day SMA (~$312) or an RSI move back above 50 would signal improving momentum, while a break below $260 would damage the longer-term uptrend.

• Resilient U.S. consumer travel demand: management noted U.S. domestic travel delivered its fastest growth in 15 quarters during Q2 2026, offsetting international softness.
• B2B secular tailwind: Expedia's B2B division logged its 20th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth (up 23% in Q2), driven by white-label partnerships such as powering Uber's hotel bookings.
• Sector-wide volatility: travel equities have seen coordinated macro-driven pullbacks alongside Booking Holdings and Airbnb as investors rotate out of consumer discretionary.
• Interest rates and macro anxiety: higher-for-longer rates could pressure discretionary travel spending, especially for lower-income consumers.
• Geopolitical and FX headwinds: localized international disruptions and currency fluctuations can impact cross-border bookings.

• Q3 2026 earnings release (late October 2026): will show whether the raised full-year guidance (gross bookings $129.5–$130.8B, revenue $16.05–$16.22B) is on track.
• Continued B2B partnership wins and scaling (e.g., Uber hotel booking infrastructure) could sustain 20%+ growth.
• Vrbo/Escapia product expansion (Sept 1, 2026) to drive host engagement and inventory growth.
• Potential multiple re-rating if earnings beats continue and travel demand remains resilient.
• Ongoing share repurchases and dividend payments return cash to shareholders.

• Travel demand is highly cyclical; a macro slowdown, recession, or health scare could sharply reduce bookings.
• High debt-to-equity (4.7x) and current ratio below 1 (0.80) leave a thin balance-sheet cushion despite strong cash flow.
• Intense competition from Booking Holdings, Airbnb, and Google in online travel search and booking.
• B2B segment could face margin pressure or partner concentration risk.
• Q2 2026 GAAP EPS ($7.16) was well above adjusted EPS ($5.76), so headline earnings overstate core profitability; future quarters may see normalization.

Expedia is a cash-generative travel platform with accelerating revenue (+14% YoY in Q2 2026), expanding margins, a 20-quarter B2B growth streak, and a forward P/E of just ~13.5x. The recent pullback to ~$281 offers an attractive entry point for patient investors, though near-term technicals are weak and macro risks persist. The deterministic 'Fair Fundamentals' score understates the business because it heavily penalizes the buyback-driven capital structure and uses backward-looking ratios. I see the risk/reward as favorable for a long-term investor, but this is analysis, not personalized financial advice.

I applied an 18x forward P/E to next-FY consensus EPS of $20.87, yielding $375.66. An 18x multiple is justified by Expedia’s 14% revenue growth, 23% B2B growth, 18.6% ROIC, and ~13% free-cash-flow yield, while discounting for travel cyclicality and high leverage. This sits below the 5-year average P/E of 28.5x but well above the current 13.5x forward multiple, implying the stock is undervalued if it sustains double-digit growth.