FOX — Fox Corporation

As of 2026-09-13, the market is balanced between FOX's strong fiscal 2026 results and its structural risks. Q4 FY2026 revenue jumped 28% YoY to $4.21B on the FIFA World Cup and Tubi strength, but Q3 FY2026 revenue actually fell 8.6% YoY. Analysts are mixed: 18 Buy, 21 Hold, 4 Sell, with a Hold consensus, even as the average price target of $81.33 implies upside. The stock's 50.96 RSI and 2.95% discount to its 20-day SMA suggest neither euphoria nor panic.

Revenue is highly seasonal and event-driven, not smoothly accelerating. Q4 FY2026 revenue rose 28.1% YoY to $4.212B, and operating margin spiked to 43.5% from 25.4% a year earlier, largely due to the 2026 FIFA World Cup and robust Tubi growth. But Q3 FY2026 revenue fell 8.6% YoY to $3.994B, and Q2 FY2026 revenue grew only 2.0% YoY. Full-year FY2026 revenue of $17.13B was up about 5%, with adjusted EBITDA up 8%. The Q4 margin spike is a one-off blip, not a new structural margin level. Underlying trends show Tubi and political advertising growing, but linear pay-TV affiliate and cable network pressures persist.

As of 2026-09-13, FOX looks mixed: expensive on trailing metrics but cheap on forward earnings if estimates hold. Trailing P/E of 15.0x is above the 5-year average of 12.0x, and P/S of 1.50x is above the 5-year average of 1.21x, so the stock is rich versus its own trailing history. However, forward P/E on next-FY EPS of $5.954 is only about 9.8x, below both the trailing multiple and the 5-year average. The PEG ratio of -0.707 is not meaningful. EV/EBITDA of 9.43x is moderate. The market appears skeptical that the forward EPS estimate, which implies roughly 50% growth from TTM EPS of $3.974, will fully materialize.

At $58.45 as of 2026-09-13, the stock is pricing in roughly 9.8x forward EPS of $5.954. That is cheap if estimates are achieved, but the estimate implies a large jump from trailing EPS, partly driven by non-recurring World Cup and political ad benefits. If forward EPS is cut to ~$4.80, a 12x multiple would put the stock near $57.60, essentially today's price. So the market is not pricing in a full turnaround but is also not giving FOX credit for the consensus estimate. Upside would come from political ad spending and Tubi/Roku traction; downside would come from estimate cuts or linear TV deterioration.

As of 2026-09-13, RSI-14 was 50.96, squarely neutral. The $58.45 price was 2.95% below the 20-day SMA, 5.9% above the 50-day SMA, and 2.64% above the 200-day SMA. One-week return was +0.05%, one-month +4.43%, three-month -0.8%, and six-month +12.34%. The stock is range-bound to mildly constructive: above medium/long-term averages but recently soft versus the short-term average. There is no overbought or oversold signal, so entry timing is not urgent; a pullback toward the 50-day SMA or a breakout above the mid-$60s would offer a clearer signal.

• Political advertising cycle: the 2026 U.S. midterms are a tailwind for FOX News and local TV stations, but the spending is temporary and cyclical.
• Connected TV/AVOD shift: Tubi revenue grew 35% YoY, and the pending Roku acquisition could scale addressable advertising, though regulatory scrutiny remains a risk.
• Linear pay-TV cord-cutting: secular subscriber declines pressure affiliate fees and cable network economics, forcing digital growth to offset the decline.
• Interest rates and credit markets: FOX's low beta (0.592) and strong balance sheet reduce rate sensitivity, but M&A financing and valuation multiples remain sensitive to debt costs.
• Sports rights inflation: premium live sports drive viewership and ad revenue, but rising rights costs can compress margins over time.

• Q1 FY2027 earnings on October 29, 2026: early read on political ad spending, Tubi growth, and Roku integration timeline.
• Regulatory approval or denial of the pending Roku acquisition by the FCC or antitrust authorities.
• 2026 U.S. midterm political advertising spending across FOX News and local stations.
• Continued Tubi revenue growth and FOX One direct-to-consumer subscriber traction.
• Share buybacks and dividend distributions, with an ex-dividend date in early September 2026.

• Accelerating linear pay-TV subscriber declines could erode affiliate fee revenue faster than digital growth offsets it.
• The Roku acquisition may face regulatory delays, integration challenges, or overpayment risk.
• Sports rights cost inflation could pressure operating margins, especially if ad revenue does not keep pace.
• Forward EPS estimates may prove too high because Q4 FY2026 benefited from the non-recurring FIFA World Cup.
• Advertising market cyclicality makes political ad revenue a temporary boost rather than a durable growth driver.

FOX is a cash-generative, well-capitalized media company with a strong balance sheet, growing Tubi platform, and political ad tailwind, but it remains exposed to structural linear TV decline. The stock trades at a cheap 9.8x forward P/E if estimates hold, yet the trailing valuation is rich versus its own history and the Q4 margin spike was event-driven. I would lean cautiously bullish for value-oriented investors, but this is not a clean growth story and estimate risk is real.

I applied a 12.5x forward P/E multiple—a modest premium to FOX's 5-year average trailing P/E of 12.0x—to next-FY consensus EPS of $5.954, balancing strong free cash flow and balance-sheet quality against secular linear TV decline and cyclical ad/event benefits. 12.5 × $5.954 = $74.43.