KKR — KKR & Co. Inc.

Sentiment is bullish as of 2026-08-27: analyst consensus is Buy with 24 buys, 3 holds, and zero sells; recent price target revisions are mostly higher, including Oppenheimer raising its target to $166. The $250 million DOJ HSR settlement is headline risk, but the market is treating it as manageable, while large infrastructure/insurance/AI deployment announcements support the growth narrative.

Revenue and EPS are inflecting upward, though with genuine lumpiness. TTM revenue through Q2 2026 is roughly $21.1B, up about 32% from the prior-year TTM. YoY revenue growth: Q3 2025 +15.5%, Q4 2025 +72.5%, Q1 2026 +31.0%, Q2 2026 +22.5%. EPS followed a similar path: Q1 2025 was a loss (-$0.22), but Q2 2025 $0.50, Q3 2025 $0.90, Q4 2025 $1.16, Q1 2026 $0.42, Q2 2026 $0.70. The 2024 Q1 revenue spike to $9.6B and the subsequent drop distort GAAP comparisons, and Q4 2025 had a large negative operating cash flow quarter. Operating margins are improving on a TTM basis—17.6% overall, with Q2 2026 margin at 13.0% versus 6.5% a year earlier. This is a recovery inflection, not a smooth linear trend.

As of 2026-08-27, valuation is fair to attractive on forward earnings, not obviously cheap on trailing GAAP. TTM P/E is 32.5x versus the 5-year average of 30.6x; P/S is 4.65x versus the 5-year average of 5.18x. The forward P/E on consensus next-fiscal-year EPS of $6.33 is only about 17.3x, with a PEG of 0.67 and a dividend yield of 0.73%. If the forward earnings estimate is credible, the stock is not expensive for a high-growth alternative asset manager with $723B in AUM and an insurance capital engine.

At $109.32, the market is pricing KKR on forward adjusted earnings rather than its trailing GAAP peak multiple. The stock is effectively paying ~17x the consensus forward EPS estimate, not the 30x+ trailing GAAP P/E, meaning the market is demanding actual earnings delivery. If KKR hits consensus EPS of $6.33 and the multiple re-rates toward the low 20s, fair value is in the $130s; if quarterly earnings stumble again—like Q1 2025—the multiple could stay compressed and the stock could grind sideways.

As of 2026-08-27, RSI is 56.6, so the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. Price is 1.33% above the 20-day SMA, 8.25% above the 50-day SMA, and 3.1% above the 200-day SMA. That is a constructive recovery pattern after the drawdown from $152.10, but not a breakout—the stock is still 28% below its 52-week high. Entry timing is neutral-to-positive; a close below the 200-day SMA would be the main technical warning sign.

• Interest rates and the Fed path drive private equity marks, credit spreads, and realization activity; lower rates would support carried interest and exit volumes.
• Institutional capital continues rotating toward alternatives, private credit, and infrastructure, benefiting scaled managers like KKR.
• Global Atlantic insurance liabilities provide sticky long-term capital for KKR to deploy, but also introduce spread and regulatory interest-rate sensitivity.
• Rising antitrust/regulatory scrutiny—highlighted by the $250M DOJ HSR settlement—could slow large M&A transactions and raise compliance costs.
• AI/data-center and energy-infrastructure investment is creating a large new deployment pipeline across KKR's infrastructure and real assets strategies.

• Q3 2026 earnings, expected late October/early November 2026, with updates on AUM, fee-earning AUM, fee-related earnings, and realizations.
• Final court approval of the $250M DOJ settlement after the 60-day public comment period; removing the overhang would clear a path for M&A activity.
• Continued strategic partnerships and deployments, including Atlantic Aviation, the Enbridge Westcoast expansion, and the SK Horizon AI/data-center investment.
• Global Atlantic annuity inflows and insurance capital deployment, which are key to fee-related earnings growth and permanent capital supply.
• A reopening of IPO/exit markets, which would unlock carried interest and boost distributable earnings after a slow realization period.

• The $250M DOJ settlement is the largest ever HSR penalty; further regulatory scrutiny could delay or deter future deals and increase compliance overhead.
• Earnings are lumpy and mark-to-market sensitive—Q1 2025 produced a GAAP loss and Q4 2025 had a large negative operating cash flow quarter.
• The insurance/annuity business adds balance-sheet complexity and interest-rate/spread risk that a traditional asset-manager multiple does not fully capture.
• With beta of 1.79, KKR will amplify market drawdowns, especially if risk assets sell off or private equity marks weaken.
• The stock already trades above book value at 3.15x, so a growth disappointment could trigger multiple compression.

KKR is a high-quality compounder in alternative assets with strong secular tailwinds, improving quarterly momentum, and a reasonable forward earnings multiple as of 2026-08-27. The DOJ settlement is a real cost but not a thesis-breaker. For a long-term investor comfortable with GAAP volatility and high beta, KKR is an attractive buy-the-dip candidate, though I would not expect a straight line upward until quarterly earnings delivery becomes more consistent.

I applied a 21.0x forward P/E multiple to the consensus next-fiscal-year EPS estimate of $6.33, resulting in $132.95. The 21x multiple is justified by the stock's 0.67 PEG, strong AUM and fee-earnings growth, and a discount to KKR's own 5-year average P/E of 30.6x to account for earnings lumpiness, regulatory overhang, and high beta.