LNT — Alliant Energy Corporation

As of 2026-09-13, the tape is weak: LNT is down 8.0% over three months, 7.6% over six months, and sits 5.79% below its 50-day and 4.51% below its 200-day moving average. RSI at 35.02 is weak but not yet oversold. Q2 2026 EPS of $0.65 fell from $0.68 a year earlier, and operating income dropped 17% YoY, even though revenue beat consensus and management reaffirmed full-year guidance. Analysts remain constructive with a $77 consensus target and a Buy rating, but the market is currently more focused on rate sensitivity, high leverage, and negative free cash flow than on the multi-year data-center opportunity.

Revenue growth accelerated through 2025, peaking at +11.9% YoY in Q3 2025, then decelerated to +5.0% in Q1 2026 and just +1.0% in Q2 2026. Operating income tells a weaker near-term story: Q2 2026 operating income fell to $185 million from $223 million in Q2 2025, compressing operating margin to 19.1% from 23.2%. Diluted EPS followed, slipping to $0.65 from $0.68. This looks more like a near-term earnings and margin blip than a structural collapse, since Q1 2026 EPS still rose to $0.87 from $0.83 and net margin held roughly flat around 17.5%-18.9%. However, the trend is clearly decelerating, and free cash flow has been negative every quarter shown, with Q2 2026 FCF of -$301 million and Q4 2025 FCF of -$2.214 billion, reflecting heavy rate-base capex. The future data-center growth is not yet showing up in reported earnings.

LNT screens roughly fair, not cheap. As of 2026-09-13, the TTM P/E was 21.22 versus the 5-year average P/E of 20.93, so it is slightly rich on trailing earnings. Using next-FY consensus EPS of $3.425, the forward P/E is about 19.6, a modest discount to the 5-year average, but the PEG ratio is negative because trailing EPS growth has stalled. Price-to-book is 2.31, price-to-sales is 3.92, and the dividend yield is 2.985%. The deterministic valuation context labels it Neutral versus its own history, which fits: the stock is neither a bargain nor egregiously expensive, but it lacks a clear valuation cushion given the weak near-term earnings trend.

As of 2026-09-13, the stock at $67.26 is pricing roughly 19.6x forward EPS of $3.425, or about 19.4x if management hits the upper end of its $3.36-$3.46 guidance range. The market is not paying much for the data-center load-growth narrative yet, but it is also not pricing a disaster. A Q3 2026 beat and regulatory clarity on cost recovery could support a move back toward 21x forward EPS, roughly $72. A miss or further margin compression could push the multiple toward 18x, implying downside near $61-$62. This is a show-me story: the next quarterly print needs to confirm that Q2 2026 was a blip, not the start of a weaker earnings trajectory.

As of 2026-09-13, LNT's technical picture is bearish but not washed out. RSI stood at 35.02, below neutral but above the classic oversold threshold of 30. The stock was 1.88% below its 20-day SMA, 5.79% below its 50-day SMA, and 4.51% below its 200-day SMA, confirming a downtrend across all key time frames. Return over the past month was -4.24%, and over three months -8.0%. With the 52-week low at $63.28, support is likely in the low-to-mid $60s. Entry timing is poor until the stock either reaches RSI below 30 or reclaims the 50-day moving average, which sat near $71.40 as of this date. Catching the falling knife here is not attractive.

• Interest rate sensitivity: as a capital-intensive regulated utility, LNT's valuation and borrowing costs are pressured by elevated long-term rates; falling yields would be a tailwind, while higher-for-longer rates cap multiple expansion.
• Regulatory environment: outcomes from the Iowa Utilities Board and Public Service Commission of Wisconsin determine allowed ROE, cost recovery, and the pace of coal retirements and renewable additions.
• Data center and AI electricity demand: contracted demand around 3.4 GW and potential 60% load growth by 2031 are a major secular tailwind, but they require large upfront capex and regulatory approval before converting into earnings.
• Capital intensity and financing: LNT generated negative free cash flow in every recent quarter and carries $10.636 billion of long-term debt, making it dependent on debt and equity markets to fund its capex plan.
• Defensive sector rotation: utilities can attract investors during market choppiness, but LNT competes with bond yields for income-oriented capital, limiting relative appeal when rates are high.

• Q3 2026 earnings release expected late October or early November 2026: a key check on whether EPS tracks toward the upper half of the $3.36-$3.46 guidance range.
• Regulatory filings and approvals in Iowa and Wisconsin related to data-center load growth, cost recovery, and capital projects.
• New data-center contracts or updates on the roughly 3.4 GW contracted pipeline, which could shift the growth narrative from promise to visible earnings.
• Federal Reserve rate cuts or a meaningful decline in Treasury yields, which would lower financing costs and support utility valuations.
• Debt offering pricing and refinancing activity, including the recent Interstate Power and Light offering, which affects interest expense and cash flow.

• High leverage and negative free cash flow: long-term debt of $10.636 billion, debt-to-equity of 1.61, current ratio of 0.466, and quick ratio of 0.35 leave little margin for financing stress.
• Interest rate risk: higher-for-longer rates raise borrowing costs on capex and can compress the P/E multiple investors are willing to pay for regulated earnings.
• Regulatory risk: adverse rate case outcomes, disallowances, or delays in cost recovery could pressure earnings and the dividend growth trajectory.
• Execution risk on data-center growth: the load-growth pipeline is promising but may require additional equity issuance, larger capex, or delayed regulatory approvals, diluting per-share benefits.
• Earnings deceleration: Q2 2026 operating income fell 17% YoY and EPS declined to $0.65 from $0.68; continued weakness would challenge the current valuation and analyst targets.
• Weather and demand variability: utility revenues remain sensitive to heating and cooling degree days, which can cause quarterly earnings volatility.

LNT is a solid regulated utility with a credible long-term data-center growth story, but as of 2026-09-13 the near-term setup is unattractive: earnings are decelerating, free cash flow is deeply negative, leverage is high, and the stock is below all key moving averages. The shares are only roughly fair versus their own history, not cheap enough to compensate for those risks, so I would avoid or wait for either a better entry near the low $60s or clear evidence that Q2 2026 was just a temporary blip. This is not a personalized recommendation, just a directional read on the current data.

Applied a 21.0x forward P/E to next-FY consensus EPS of $3.425, justified by LNT's 5-year average P/E of 20.93 and modest data-center-driven rate-base growth. Calculation: 3.425 × 21.0 = $71.93. This is above the current $67.26 but below the analysts' $77 consensus, reflecting fair value for a low-growth regulated utility with meaningful execution and financing risks.