NDAQ — Nasdaq, Inc.

Market sentiment is bullish as of 2026-08-27. The Q2 2026 earnings report beat expectations, management raised full-year non-GAAP expense guidance, ARR grew 12% to $3.3 billion, and the company has been active on M&A (LeveL Markets) and partnerships (Q6 Cyber, Kalshi). With 22 Buy ratings versus 13 Holds and only 1 Sell, the analyst consensus is Buy, and the stock is trading just below its 52-week high.

The trend is clearly accelerating. FMP's reported revenue line jumped to $2.532B in Q2 2026, up 21.1% YoY from $2.090B in Q2 2025 and up 18.5% sequentially from $2.137B in Q1 2026. This reacceleration contrasts with the mid-2025 stall, when Q1 and Q2 2025 were both flat at $2.090B and Q3 2025 dipped to $1.958B. Operating margin expanded from roughly 26% in early 2025 to 34.6% in Q2 2026, and GAAP diluted EPS rose from $0.78 to $0.89 YoY. TTM free cash flow is about $1.95B and roughly matches TTM net income, so the earnings growth is cash-backed. This looks like a structural margin and growth inflection, not a one-quarter blip.

The stock is fair-to-slightly-rich on absolute terms but not expensive versus its own history. As of 2026-08-27, trailing P/E is 28.6x, below the 5-year average of 31.0x, while P/S of 6.38x is above the 5-year average of 5.68x. Forward P/E on 2026E EPS of $4.131 is about 24.0x, which is reasonable only if Nasdaq keeps delivering high-teens EPS growth. The 1.26% dividend yield is modest, and the 4.68x price-to-book reflects the market's willingness to pay up for recurring, high-margin FinTech/exchange revenue.

At $99.35 as of 2026-08-27, the stock is pricing in continued beat-and-raise execution. Consensus 2026E EPS of $4.13 implies a 24x forward P/E; if Nasdaq hits that number and the multiple stays near its historical average, the stock has mid-teens upside toward the $113 analyst target. But the setup is asymmetric in the other direction too: if EPS comes in at, say, $3.90, a 24x multiple would imply just $93.60. The market is underwriting a durable growth story, and so far the data supports that, but there is limited room for a growth scare.

As of 2026-08-27, the technical picture is strong but approaching overbought. RSI is 69.34, just below the 70 overbought threshold, and the stock is 3.03% above its 20-day, 9.38% above its 50-day, and 10.29% above its 200-day moving average. Price is only about 2.4% below the 52-week high of $101.79. Momentum is clearly up, but chasing here carries short-term pullback risk; a dip toward the 50-day near the $92-$95 zone would offer a more attractive entry.

• Capital markets activity: strong equity and options volumes plus a busy IPO pipeline directly benefit Nasdaq's Market Services and Capital Access Platforms.
• Regulatory tailwinds: heightened AML/financial-crime and digital-asset scrutiny is driving demand for Verafin and market surveillance products.
• Interest rates: a higher-for-longer rate environment keeps risk sentiment checkered and raises leverage costs, though Nasdaq's growing recurring revenue softens the cyclical hit.
• Secular shift to 24/5 trading and index options: new trading hours and products create volume upside but also operational and regulatory complexity.
• Competition: rival exchanges and FinTech data providers are pushing into Nasdaq's high-margin businesses, pressuring pricing power.

• 24/5 U.S. stock trading rollout scheduled for December 6, 2026.
• Q4 launch of lit index options, a new high-margin product cycle.
• Closing and integration of the LeveL Markets ATS acquisition.
• Q3 2026 earnings in late October; another beat-and-raise would reinforce the bull case.

• Multiple compression: at 24x forward earnings, even a modest growth miss could trigger a meaningful de-rating.
• Execution/regulatory risk around 24/5 trading and the LeveL Markets acquisition.
• Cyclicality: trading volumes, IPO activity, and listings are sensitive to macro conditions and risk appetite.
• Leverage and liquidity: long-term debt of $8.49B versus equity of $11.99B and a current ratio of 0.48 leave limited near-term balance-sheet flexibility.

Nasdaq is a high-quality exchange/FinTech franchise with accelerating revenue, expanding operating margins, and durable recurring ARR. At $99.35 as of 2026-08-27, it is not cheap on an absolute basis, but it trades below its own 5-year average P/E and has multiple visible catalysts into 2026. I lean bullish, though the risk/reward would be improved by buying on a pullback toward the 50-day moving average rather than chasing current overbought momentum.

I applied a 26.5x forward P/E to 2026E EPS of $4.131, justified by high-teens EPS growth, 12% ARR growth, expanding margins, and high-quality recurring revenue; 26.5x sits between the broad market's ~20x and Nasdaq's 5-year average of ~31x, yielding $109.47.