OKE — ONEOK, Inc.

As of 2026-09-13, sentiment was balanced with a mildly positive tilt. The stock had climbed to $96.62, within 3.3% of its 52-week high of $99.85, and was up 13.19% over six months with RSI at 58.95 and the price above all three key moving averages. Offsetting that, the 12-analyst consensus price target of $97.22 was effectively identical to the current price, the consensus rating was Hold (16 Buy / 23 Hold / 0 Sell), and the 16.63x trailing P/E sat right on the 16.04x five-year average. The Apollo and Brazos announcements were public roughly two weeks before this date, so they were already reflected in the price rather than being a fresh catalyst.

Revenue has compounded aggressively but for partly cosmetic reasons: Q3 2023 revenue of $4.158B became $12.049B in Q2 2026, up 52.8% YoY versus Q2 2025's $7.887B, driven by the Magellan, EnLink and Medallion acquisitions plus heavy NGL/commodity pass-through flowing through the top line. That pass-through is why the reported operating margin looks like it is compressing (18.4% in Q2 2025 to 13.2% in Q2 2026) even though operating income dollars rose 9.6% YoY to $1.593B - the denominator is inflated, not profitability deteriorating. The cleaner read is EPS: $0.99 in Q3 2023 to $1.53 in Q2 2026, up 14.2% YoY, with TTM EPS of $5.798 and normal Q1 seasonality (Q1 2026 EPS of $1.23 versus Q2 2026's $1.53). Free cash flow is lumpy but inflecting upward - Q2 2026 FCF was a record $1.44B (OCF $2.053B, capex $613M) versus only $70M in Q1 2026 on $864M of capex, with TTM FCF around $2.91B against roughly $2.70B of dividends. Structural read: steady, volume-led, fee-based mid-single-digit growth, with management guidance raised twice in 2026; Q4 2025's $2.694B operating income and 29.7% margin is a one-off gain and should not be extrapolated.

Fair, not cheap. As of 2026-09-13, OKE at $96.62 traded at 16.63x TTM EPS of $5.798, a roughly 4% premium to its own five-year average P/E of 16.04x. On consensus next-FY EPS of $5.714 - slightly below TTM - the forward P/E was 16.9x, meaning the market is paying a full historical multiple for an EPS base that is not yet growing. PEG of 1.276 is defensible for a ~5% grower but leaves no margin of safety. A trailing EV/EBITDA of 11.87x is mid-pack to slightly rich versus midstream peers, and the 1.547x P/S versus a five-year average of 1.77x only looks like a discount because pass-through revenue inflates the sales base. The 4.805% dividend yield is genuine support and is covered roughly 1.08x by TTM FCF of $2.91B, which is adequate rather than comfortable.

The market is paying for EBITDA growth and deleveraging while GAAP EPS stands still. Consensus next-FY EPS of $5.714 is actually below the TTM $5.798, yet the stock trades at 16.9x forward, roughly its own five-year average - no obvious multiple compression risk, but also no cushion. What is happening is that adjusted EBITDA rose about 7% YoY in Q2 2026 with guidance raised for a second straight quarter, while EPS is held back by acquisition-related D&A, $30.773B of long-term debt as of 2026-06-30, and the cost of the new Apollo Class B minority interest. For a reader revisiting this after 2026-09-13: track free cash flow per share and net debt/EBITDA (management targets 3.25x, ahead of peers), not the EPS line. If the $5B debt paydown and the Brazos close push 2027 EPS estimates up from $5.71, the 16.9x forward multiple is justified and can expand; if estimates keep drifting lower, the stock is at the ceiling of what a ~5% grower deserves.

As of 2026-09-13, OKE's technical picture was constructive but not extended. RSI(14) stood at 58.95 - above neutral, below overbought. The $96.62 price was +1.44% versus the 20-day SMA (implied ~$95.25), +4.58% versus the 50-day (implied ~$92.39) and +13.05% versus the 200-day (implied ~$85.47), a textbook uptrend with all three averages stacked beneath the price. Returns were positive across every window: +1.25% over one week, +4.49% over one month, +6.66% over three months and +13.19% over six months. Entry-timing implication: the easy money has already been made. The stock is about 3% below the 52-week high of $99.85, which is now the level to clear. Buying into resistance at a stock trading on its historical average multiple is mediocre risk/reward; the better setups are a decisive close above ~$100 or a pullback toward the 50-day near $92, which would restore some valuation cushion.

• Permian Basin production and NGL takeaway demand remain the core structural tailwind - the $4.425B Brazos Midstream deal deepens ONEOK's Midland Basin gathering and processing footprint exactly where volumes are growing.
• Surging U.S. power demand from data centers and electrification is lifting natural gas and NGL throughput forecasts, a multi-year volume tailwind for fee-based midstream operators.
• Interest rates matter: ONEOK carried $30.773B of long-term debt as of 2026-06-30, and while the $9B Apollo infusion plus the $5B tender materially cut near-term refinancing pressure, a capital-intensive balance sheet of this size stays rate-sensitive.
• NGL and natural gas price volatility - ONEOK is predominantly fee-based, but commodity pass-through inflates reported revenue (and depresses reported margins) and fractionation spread compression hits realized economics.
• Regulatory and compliance overhead: pipeline safety, environmental reporting and FERC/state rate matters, plus the added governance complexity of the new holding-company structure backing the Apollo Class B interest.

• Q3 2026 earnings (expected late October to early November 2026) - the first report to consolidate the Brazos assets and reflect the post-reorganization capital structure; a third guidance raise would be the clear positive tell.
• Closing and integration of the $4.425B Brazos Midstream acquisition, plus execution toward management's mid-to-high-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth target over the next 5 to 7 years.
• Completion of the $5B debt tender and progress toward the 3.25x debt/EBITDA target - deleveraging ahead of peers would support multiple expansion.
• Dividend growth: the $1.07 quarterly dividend ($4.28 annualized, 4.805% yield) has been maintained, and a raise backed by record Q2 2026 FCF of $1.44B would be a positive signal.
• Additional Permian/NGL bolt-on consolidation or new growth projects funded from the Apollo capital rather than from common equity.

• Leverage is the swing factor: $30.773B of long-term debt and 1.44x debt-to-equity as of 2026-06-30, against a 0.737 current ratio - the deleveraging plan depends on EBITDA holding up.
• Flat GAAP earnings: consensus next-FY EPS of $5.714 is below TTM EPS of $5.798, so the market is paying 16.9x forward for essentially no EPS growth, leaving room for multiple compression if EBITDA gains do not convert.
• Integration and structural complexity - Brazos, the completed EnLink/Medallion integrations, and the new holding-company/Apollo Class B arrangement all add execution, accounting and reporting risk.
• Volume risk: the fee-based model still depends on Permian and NGL throughput, and a basin production slowdown, takeaway constraint or frac spread compression would hit realized economics even if headline revenue looks fine.
• Dividend coverage of roughly 1.08x TTM FCF ($2.91B of FCF versus ~$2.70B of dividends) is thin in capex-heavy quarters - Q1 2026 produced only $70M of FCF.

A well-run, fee-based midstream operator that is fairly valued rather than mispriced. The late-2026 Apollo/Brazos package genuinely improves the story - $9B of non-dilutive equity, $5B of debt retired, debt/EBITDA targeted at 3.25x, and accretive Permian gathering and processing volumes - but the stock has already re-rated 13% over six months and now trades at 16.63x TTM and 16.9x forward with consensus FY2027 EPS essentially flat versus today. That leaves a realistic forward return of roughly the 4.805% dividend plus mid-single-digit EBITDA growth, call it high-single-digit total return with a 0.72 beta. A solid income holding and a reasonable add on a pullback toward the 50-day EMA near $92, but not a compelling fresh buy at $96.62.

Blended multiple approach: I apply 16.6x - in line with ONEOK's own five-year average P/E of 16.04x and its 16.63x trailing P/E, with a small premium for the accelerated deleveraging path toward 3.25x debt/EBITDA - to a forward EPS of $5.90 (consensus next-FY $5.714 plus roughly $0.19 of accretion from the $5B debt paydown net of the Apollo minority distribution), which yields $97.94. Cross-check: 11.5-12.0x EV/EBITDA on roughly $8.2B of 2027E EBITDA, less about $26B of pro-forma net debt and the $9B Apollo minority interest, implies $94-$101 per share. Weighted to $98.