RJF — Raymond James Financial, Inc.

As of 2026-08-27, the market is constructive but not enthusiastic: Q3 FY26 results showed solid revenue and EPS acceleration, the stock sits near its 52-week high, and the RSI of 52.6 is balanced. However, the consensus rating is Hold (14 holds vs. 11 buys, no sells) and the average price target of $181.50 implies only modest upside from $176.11.

Quarterly revenue has risen from $3.47B in Sep-2023 to $4.36B in Jun-2026, with a brief soft patch in Mar/Jun-2025 and a clear re-acceleration afterward. Jun-2026 revenue was up about 15% year over year, EPS jumped to $3.01 from $2.12 a year earlier, and trailing operating margin has been stable around 17.2%-17.7% over the last four quarters. This is an inflection upward, not a deteriorating trend.

Fairly valued. As of 2026-08-27, RJF trades at 15.1x trailing earnings versus its 5-year average of 13.7x, and 2.0x sales versus its 5-year average of 1.87x. On the consensus forward EPS estimate of $12.15, the stock is at about 14.5x forward earnings. The premium to history is modest and supported by ~16% ROIC, ~17% ROE, and re-accelerating revenue growth, but it is not a bargain.

At $176.11, the market is paying roughly fair value for current earnings and giving RJF credit for continued mid-single-digit EPS growth. If Q4 FY26 (released October 28, 2026) confirms the recent acceleration, estimates could move higher and a re-rate toward $185-190 is plausible. If growth disappoints, the historical 13.7x average multiple implies a more vulnerable level near $166.

As of 2026-08-27, RSI 14 stands at 52.6, which is neutral. Price is about 1.0% below the 20-day SMA, 3.8% above the 50-day SMA, and 10.2% above the 200-day SMA, indicating an uptrend that is consolidating near highs. The key overhead level is the $182.73 all-time high; support is near the 50-day SMA around $170. A pullback toward $170 would offer a more attractive entry than chasing the current price.

• Federal Reserve policy and interest-rate expectations: rate cuts would pressure cash-sweep net interest income, while higher-for-longer supports it.
• Equity market levels: a large portion of revenue comes from asset-management and admin fees tied to client asset values, so a strong stock market is a direct tailwind.
• Capital markets cycle: recovering M&A, underwriting, and advisory pipelines add higher-margin banking revenue.
• Regulatory environment: fiduciary, advisor-compensation, and SEC/DOL rules could affect the independent-advisor business model.
• Advisor recruiting and retention: competition for top advisors affects net new asset growth and compensation costs.

• Q4 and full-year FY2026 earnings release expected October 28, 2026, with updated FY2027 guidance.
• Continued integration of Clark Capital and GreensLedge acquisitions, which should lift asset-management fees and client assets.
• Sustained capital return: quarterly dividend held at $0.54, with the next ex-date on October 1, 2026.
• Further advisor recruiting and net new asset inflows, supported by a 17% year-over-year rise in client assets.

• Rate cuts compressing net interest income and cash-sweep yields.
• An equity-market correction that reduces AUM-related fees and client activity.
• Integration or advisor-attrition risk from recent acquisitions.
• Valuation reset risk: with the P/E above its own 5-year average, any growth disappointment could knock the multiple back to 13-14x, implying a meaningfully lower stock price.

Raymond James is a high-quality wealth-management franchise with stable margins, strong ROIC, and re-accelerating revenue and EPS growth. At $176.11 the stock is fairly valued rather than cheap, so it works better as a hold or accumulate-on-pullbacks than as a compelling buy right now; the October earnings report is the next meaningful swing factor.

Calculated by applying a 15.0x justified forward P/E to consensus FY2027 EPS of $12.149. The 15x multiple is a modest premium to RJF's 5-year average of 13.7x, justified by ~16% ROIC, stable margins, and a recent re-acceleration in revenue and EPS; 15.0 x $12.149 = $182.24.