WYNN — Wynn Resorts, Limited

The tape is cautious — price is near the bottom of the 52-week range, RSI is 31.45, and the stock has fallen below its 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages. That negative price action sits awkwardly against a strong Q2 (revenue $1.86B, net income $140M), the Wynn Macau profit surge, and an analyst consensus price target of $132.22; the market is worried about leverage, labor, and China consumer risk more than it is celebrating the beat.

Revenue has stayed in a tight $1.67–$1.87B quarterly band for three years, so the macro story is steady, not explosive. The important inflection is profit: net income rose four straight quarters (Q3'25 $88.3M → Q4'25 $100.0M → Q1'26 $120.5M → Q2'26 $140.1M), operating income was up ~13% YoY in Q2'26, and the last four quarters all cleared $1.83B revenue. The one-off tax-driven quarters (Q4'23, Q4'24) distort YoY EPS comparisons, but the underlying trend is a genuine margin/earnings recovery, not a one-quarter blip.

At $93.61, WYNN trades at 21.4x trailing EPS and about 20.2x next-fiscal-year EPS of $4.638 — below its 5-year average P/E of 23.7 and P/S of 1.94 (current P/S is 1.31). PEG of 1.0 looks fair, and valuation_context labels it cheap vs. its own history. The discount is justified to some degree by $10.7B total debt and negative stockholders' equity, so the right label is fair-to-cheap with a leverage asterisk, not deep value.

The market is currently paying ~20x next-year earnings, which effectively prices in no multiple expansion and no big Macau recovery. If WYNN merely hits the $4.638 forward EPS and the multiple normalizes to the historical 23.7x, fair value is around $110; if Macau keeps improving and the UAE project reduces sentiment risk, estimates and the multiple can move higher. The downside case is also real: a China slowdown or wage/capex inflation cutting EPS toward $4.00 would put fair value near $80 at the same multiple, so the stock is better characterized as underpricing a recovery but paying you to take balance-sheet risk.

As of 2026-08-27, RSI-14 stood at 31.45, price was 6.8% below the 20-day SMA, 5.8% below the 50-day, and 13.4% below the 200-day, with the stock at $93.61 hugging the 52-week low. That is a downtrend reaching oversold territory: it sets up a potential bounce trade, but there is no confirmed reversal until price reclaims its 20-day average and RSI turns up.

• Interest rates and refinancing: roughly $10.7B of debt makes earnings and valuation multiples sensitive to the rate cycle.
• Macau/China high-end spending: Wynn Macau's 1H26 casino revenue of $1.71B and profit surge show recovery, but VIP/premium-mass is volatile and regulator-sensitive.
• US consumer and labor costs: Las Vegas and Encore Boston face discretionary-spending normalization and a strike authorization at Boston.
• UAE construction and capex: Wynn Al Marjan Island (2027 target) creates growth optionality but also $600M-range budget-shift/cost-overrun risk.
• Capital returns/regulatory pipeline: Macau dividend repatriation and remaining $326.1M buyback authorization depend on concession/free-cash-flow conditions.

• Q3 2026 earnings due early November 2026; consensus has been revised up to $0.84 EPS.
• Wynn Macau interim dividend: ex-date September 9, 2026, payment September 24, 2026.
• Buyback execution: $326.1M still authorized; continued repurchases support per-share value.
• Wynn Al Marjan Island construction milestones and pre-marketing for a 2027 opening.
• Further Macau premium-mass market-share gains after the strong 1H26 result.

• High leverage and negative stockholders' equity (-$169M at Q2'26) leave little room for a downturn or rate shock.
• China/Macau demand or regulatory tightening hits the largest profit engine.
• UAE cost overruns, delays, or pre-opening spend pressure FCF ahead of the 2027 launch.
• Labor disruption at Encore Boston Harbor and broader wage inflation in Las Vegas/Macau.

Wynn is a high-quality but highly levered casino operator whose operations are genuinely improving — Q2'26 revenue was up 6.9% YoY, net income has risen four straight quarters, and Macau is surging — while the stock sits below its historical multiples and near oversold. The balance sheet is the reason this is not a clean buy: $10.7B debt and negative book equity justify a real discount and make the stock a value-with-risk setup rather than a low-risk compounder.

Theoretical fair value is a forward P/E calculation: 22.4x next-FY EPS of $4.638 = $104.0, a modest discount to the 5-year average P/E of 23.7x to reflect the $10.7B debt load and negative equity, but above the current ~20.2x forward multiple to reflect improving Macau momentum and the Q2'26 beat.